NUSA DUA, Bali, Indonesia, December 5, 2007 (ENS) - Adaptations to climate change that are working for farmers in the Sudan and China, flood-prone cities in Argentina and Uruguay, and Caribbean islands at risk of dengue fever, among others, were presented in a new report at the United Nations climate conference now underway in Bali.Hosted by the government of Indonesia, the conference brings together representatives of more than 180 governments, observers from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, and the media. A ministerial segment next week is expected to agree on the process for negotiating a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gases emissions worldwide.

The five year report by the Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change, AIACC, project offers examples of how vulnerable communities and countries may “climate proof” their economies in the future.

In doing so, the assessments lay a foundation upon which at-risk nations and the international community can build and fund a workable and timely response to the climate change that is already underway.

Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change is a global initiative developed in collaboration with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to advance scientific understanding of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing countries.

The US$9 million assessment covering 24 case studies was funded by the Global Environment Facility and implemented by the UN Environment Programme, UNEP.

It was executed by the secretariat for START, the global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training, based in Washington, DC, which provides an international framework for such capacity building. Also executing the assessement was TWAS, the Academy of Science for the Developing World in Trieste, Italy.

Neil Leary of the START Secretariat said, “Adaptation to climate hazards is not new. People have always been at risk from the climate and have continually sought ways of adapting. Still, variations and extremes of climate regularly exceed abilities to cope, too often with devastating effect, and give evidence of what has been called an adaptation deficit.”

“Now climate change threatens to widen the deficit, as shown by the AIACC studies. But the AIACC studies also find and document a variety of adaptive practices in use that reduce vulnerability.”

“Reducing emissions of the gases that cause climate change is necessary. But adaptation is necessary too,” Leary said.

One case study focused on the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China, an area where water supplies are heavily utilized and conflict over water is already occurring.

In the Heihe River Valley (Photo by Ellen Liu)

The study forecasts that average temperature rises of between 2.5 degrees and 6.5 degrees C could occur by 2050.

A vulnerability assessment indicated serious emerging risks such as very severe water shortages; increased floods and droughts and impacts on food supplies.

The report warns that increasing pressure from climate, population and overuse of resources could trigger “ecological collapse in some areas.”

As adaptation options for the communities of the Heihe River Basin the researchers suggest water saving irrigation strategies, leak reduction from irrigation channels, conserving soil moisture by plastic films and straw as well as deep plowing methods.

In addition, they recommend the establishment of market mechanisms such as water permits and water allocation policies.

The challenges posed by climate change are different in South Africa’s Cape Floral Kingdom in the Western Cape - a biodiversity hotspot and major tourist attraction.

By 2050, climate change may result in loss of habitat for over 10 percent of species and six percent would need to move to new locations. The case study showed that wildlife corridors would help.

One option might also be to expand the conservation network including reserves, the researchers suggest. Overall, however, a more cost effective option would be to pay farmers to manage land for conservation or to encourage more environment-friendly farming, the study concludes.

Women and girls in a drought-affected village in El Fashir. (Photo courtesy USAID)

In the arid El Fashir district of North Darfur, Sudan, the community has developed its own response to a changing climate now supplemented by outside assistance.

Utilizing a water collection system known as trus alongside earth dams has resulted in a 50 percent improvement in productivity of the land as a result of dramatically increased water harvesting.

El Fashir residents have responded to the encroachment of sand over fertile soils by sinking holes five to 15 cm deep in which to plant melon and other seedlings.

They have diversified crop production to include pumpkin, okra, tomatoes, citrus fruits, cucumbers, tobacco, millet and sesame.

The AIACC researchers found that El Fashir farmers have established trade unions, the Traditional Farmers and Fruits and Vegetable Unions, to organize production, harvesting and distribution.

In the Caribbean, cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever have climbed from a few hundred a year in the 1980s to as many as 8,000 a year since the early 1990s. There are concerns that rising cases of dengue could impact on the economically-important tourism industry.

In this case study, the researchers estimate that a two degree C temperature rise in the Caribbean by the 2080s could triple the cases of dengue fever.

This AIACC study found, for example, that pupae of the dengue-carrying mosquito favor breeding in 40 gallon drums commonly used for outside water storage by informal settlements and poor households.

Education on the disease and its transmission, targeted to these households, is suggested as one adaptation strategy, alongside measures to eliminate the mosquito breeding grounds.

A pilot early warning system has been developed and the findings and recommendations discussed with several countries, including Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

One AIACC study here has focused on the likely impact of climate change on floods and storm surges on coastal and estuary lands on La Plata River.

The estuary of this river marks the border of Uruguay and Argentina, and the capital cities of both countries - Montevideo and Buenos Aires - are built on its shores.

Construction near the Buenos Aires waterfront (Photo credit unknown)

Strong winds, high tides and the natural features of the La Plata mean flooding occurs already with vulnerable areas identified as Samborombon Bay and upstream as far as Buenos Aires.

The researchers modeled likely future floods as a result of climate change, including storm surges and sea level rise.

The report estimates that, as a result of climate change and a modest one percent per year increase in population, the population at risk of floods could be 1.7 million by 2070 - more than three times the current population at risk of floods.

Property and infrastructure losses for the period 2050-2100 could range from US$5 to 15 billion. Part of the loss calculation is based on the assumption of a single storm surge impacting the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.

The findings have been presented to the governments concerned with recommendations that include a review of coastal and city defenses and of early warning systems and flood response strategies.

The report warns that increasing numbers of poor settlements as well as gated communities of upper middle class people are being sited on very low-lying coastal lands.

UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said, “2007 has, as a result of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change been a year in which the science of climate change has reached a finality - it is happening, it is unequivocal.”

“2007 has also seen clear and cost effective strategies for cutting greenhouse gas emissions put on the table, from improved energy efficiency in buildings to ones that address deforestation and agriculture,” he said.

“One of the big missing links has been adaptation, both in terms of adaptive strategies and in terms of resources for vulnerable communities,” said Steiner. “This assessment, involving experts across the developed and developing world, lays a solid and much needed foundation - a foundation upon which adaptation can become part of country development plans and built into international assistance including overseas development aid.”

Global Environment Facility chief executive Monique Barbut said the funding facility has a long history of “working with the world’s most vulnerable countries that want environmentally-friendly ways to adapt to changing climate without sacrificing key development goals.”

“As this wide sweeping assessment shows first hand, we are moving forward in a very focused way to weave adaptation strategies into daily practice,” said Barbut. “GEF money is working today to ensure that food security, access to drinking and irrigation water, sound public health and other basic needs are protected now and into the future.”

Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2007. All rights reserved.